Lin, W., Norris, J. R., DeFlorio, M. J., Rutz, J. J., Cordeira, J. M., & Ralph, F. M. (2025). Characteristics of Precipitation Patterns in Moisture‐Dominated Versus Wind‐Dominated Atmospheric Rivers Over Western North America. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(9), e2024JD041966. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041966

Poulsen, C. D., Clemesha, R. E. S., Howard, I. M., Gershunov, A., Dettinger, M. D., Zhang, Z., Luna-Niño, R., Stahle, D. W., & Ralph, F. M. (2025). The 1991 California ‘Miracle March’: precipitation myth or miracle? Environmental Research Communications, 7(5), 051004. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/add3cc

Sengupta, A., Waliser, D. E., DeFlorio, M. J., Guan, B., Delle Monache, L., & Ralph, F. M. (2025). Role of evolving sea surface temperature modes of variability in improving seasonal precipitation forecasts. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 256. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02235-y

Zou, X., Cordeira, J. M., Bartlett, S. M., & Ralph, F. M. (2025). A Case Study of an Exceptional Atmospheric River and Explosively Deepening Cyclone Over the US Central Plains in March 2019. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(1), e2024JD042309. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042309

Rush, W. D., Lora, J. M., Skinner, C. B., Menemenlis, S. A., Shields, C. A., Ullrich, P., O’Brien, T. A., Brands, S., Guan, B., Mattingly, K. S., McClenny, E., Nardi, K., Nellikkattil, A., Ramos, A. M., Reid, K. J., Shearer, E., Tomé, R., Wille, J. D., Leung, L. R., … Quagraine, K. T. (2025). Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean‐State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(1), e2024JD042222. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042222

Luna-Niño, R., Gershunov, A., Ralph, F. M., Weyant, A., Guirguis, K., DeFlorio, M. J., Cayan, D. R., & Williams, A. P. (2025). Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US. Climate Dynamics, 63(2), 115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07583-1

Yang, Z., DeFlorio, M. J., Sengupta, A., Wang, J., Castellano, C. M., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Slinskey, E., Guan, B., Delle Monache, L., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Seasonality and climate modes influence the temporal clustering of unique atmospheric rivers in the Western U.S. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 734. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01890-x

Zhang, Z., Ralph, F. M., Zou, X., Kawzenuk, B., Zheng, M., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Rowe, P. M., & Bromwich, D. H. (2024). Extending the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) atmospheric river scale to the polar regions. The Cryosphere, 18(11), 5239–5258. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5239-2024

Guirguis, K., Hatchett, B., Gershunov, A., DeFlorio, M., Clemesha, R., Brandt, W. T., Haleakala, K., Castellano, C., Luna Niño, R., Tardy, A., Anderson, M., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Reinterpreting ENSO’s Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(14), e2024GL110326. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110326

Martens, H. R., Lau, N., Swarr, M. J., Argus, D. F., Cao, Q., Young, Z. M., Borsa, A. A., Pan, M., Wilson, A. M., Knappe, E., Ralph, F. M., & Gardner, W. P. (2024). GNSS Geodesy Quantifies Water‐Storage Gains and Drought Improvements in California Spurred by Atmospheric Rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(13), e2023GL107721. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107721

Wang, J., DeFlorio, M. J., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Delle Monache, L., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 314. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01449-w

Ghazvinian, M., Delle Monache, L., Afzali Gorooh, V., Steinhoff, D., Sengupta, A., Hu, W., Simpson, M., Weihs, R., Papadopoulos, C., Mulrooney, P., Kawzenuk, B., Mascioli, N., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Deep Learning of a 200-member Ensemble with a Limited Historical Training to Improve the Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Events. Monthly Weather Review. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0277.1

Li, L., Cannon, F., Mazloff, M. R., Subramanian, A. C., Wilson, A. M., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Impact of atmospheric rivers on Arctic sea ice variations. The Cryosphere, 18(1), 121–137. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024

Ralph, F. M., Simpson, M., Iacobellis, S., Cordeira, J. M., Cannon, F., Cobb, A., Michaelis, A. C., & Delle Monache, L. (2024). Dropsonde Observations of the Stable Marine Boundary Layer beneath Atmospheric Rivers. Monthly Weather Review, 152(12), 2735–2751. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0207.1

Bromwich, D. H., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Carpentier, S., Alexander, S., Bazile, E., Heinrich, V. J., Massonnet, F., Powers, J. G., Carrasco, J. F., Cayette, A., Choi, T., Chyhareva, A., Colwell, S. R., Cordeira, J. M., Cordero, R. R., Doerenbecher, A., Durán-Alarcón, C., French, W. J. R., Gonzalez-Herrero, S., … Zou, X. (2024). Winter Targeted Observing Periods during the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(9), E1662–E1684. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0249.1

Zheng, M., Delle Monache, L., Wu, X., Kawzenuk, B., Ralph, F. M., Zhu, Y., Torn, R., Tallapragada, V. S., Zhang, Z., Wu, K., & Wang, J. (2024). Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data on the Assimilation of Satellite Radiance Data in GFS. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 41(9), 819–832. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-23-0167.1

Lin, W.-S., Norris, J. R., DeFlorio, M. J., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Local and Object-Based Perspectives on Atmospheric Rivers Making Landfall on the Western North American Coastline. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 25(5), 673–688. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0155.1

Zheng, M., Torn, R., Delle Monache, L., Doyle, J., Ralph, F. M., Tallapragada, V., Davis, C., Steinhoff, D., Wu, X., Wilson, A., Papadopoulos, C., & Mulrooney, P. (2024). An Assessment of Dropsonde Sampling Strategies for Atmospheric River Reconnaissance. Monthly Weather Review, 152(3), 811–835. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0111.1

Wille, J. D., Alexander, S. P., Amory, C., Baiman, R., Barthélemy, L., Bergstrom, D. M., Berne, A., Binder, H., Blanchet, J., Bozkurt, D., Bracegirdle, T. J., Casado, M., Choi, T., Clem, K. R., Codron, F., Datta, R., Di Battista, S., Favier, V., Francis, D., … Zou, X. (2024). The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers. Journal of Climate, 37(3), 757–778. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0175.1

Wille, J. D., Alexander, S. P., Amory, C., Baiman, R., Barthélemy, L., Bergstrom, D. M., Berne, A., Binder, H., Blanchet, J., Bozkurt, D., Bracegirdle, T. J., Casado, M., Choi, T., Clem, K. R., Codron, F., Datta, R., Battista, S. D., Favier, V., Francis, D., … Zou, X. (2024). The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Journal of Climate, 37(3), 779–799. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0176.1

DeFlorio, M. J., Sengupta, A., Castellano, C. M., Wang, J., Zhang, Z., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Luna Niño, R., Clemesha, R. E. S., Pan, M., Xiao, M., Kawzenuk, B., Gibson, P. B., Scheftic, W., Broxton, P. D., Switanek, M. B., Yuan, J., Dettinger, M. D., Hecht, C. W., … Anderson, M. L. (2024). From California’s Extreme Drought to Major Flooding: Evaluating and Synthesizing Experimental Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecasts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation during Winter 2022/23. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(1), E84–E104. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B. J., DeFlorio, M. J., Subramanian, A. C., Clemesha, R., Delle Monache, L., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Subseasonal Prediction of Impactful California Winter Weather in a Hybrid Dynamical‐Statistical Framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(23), e2023GL105360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105360

Gorodetskaya, I. V., Durán-Alarcón, C., González-Herrero, S., Clem, K. R., Zou, X., Rowe, P., Rodriguez Imazio, P., Campos, D., Leroy-Dos Santos, C., Dutrievoz, N., Wille, J. D., Chyhareva, A., Favier, V., Blanchet, J., Pohl, B., Cordero, R. R., Park, S.-J., Colwell, S., Lazzara, M. A., … Picard, G. (2023). Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(1), 202. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00529-6

Zou, X., Cordeira, J. M., Bartlett, S. M., Kawzenuk, B., Roj, S., Castellano, C., Hecht, C., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Mesoscale and Synoptic Scale Analysis of Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband During a Landfalling Atmospheric River in California During January 2021. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(20), e2023JD039426. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039426

Zou, X., Rowe, P. M., Gorodetskaya, I., Bromwich, D. H., Lazzara, M. A., Cordero, R. R., Zhang, Z., Kawzenuk, B., Cordeira, J. M., Wille, J. D., Ralph, F. M., & Bai, L. (2023). Strong Warming Over the Antarctic Peninsula During Combined Atmospheric River and Foehn Events: Contribution of Shortwave Radiation and Turbulence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(16), e2022JD038138. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038138

Lavers, D. A., Torn, R. D., Davis, C., Richardson, D. S., Ralph, F. M., & Pappenberger, F. (2023). Forecast evaluation of the North Pacific jet stream using AR Recon dropwindsondes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, qj.4545. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4545

Shulgina, T., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B. J., Guirguis, K., Subramanian, A. C., Margulis, S. A., Fang, Y., Cayan, D. R., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M., Anderson, M. L., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Observed and projected changes in snow accumulation and snowline in California’s snowy mountains. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06776-w

Zhang, Z., DeFlorio, M. J., Delle Monache, L., Subramanian, A. C., Ralph, F. M., Waliser, D. E., Zheng, M., Guan, B., Goodman, A., Molod, A. M., Vitart, F., Kumar, A., & Lin, H. (2023). Multi‐Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western U.S. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(7), e2022JD037608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037608

Shields, C. A., Payne, A. E., Shearer, E. J., Wehner, M. F., O’Brien, T. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L. R., Ralph, F. M., Marquardt Collow, A. B., Ullrich, P. A., Dong, Q., Gershunov, A., Griffith, H., Guan, B., Lora, J. M., Lu, M., McClenny, E., Nardi, K. M., Pan, M., … Zarzycki, C. (2023). Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High‐Resolution Global Warming Experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(6), e2022GL102091. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102091

Castellano, C. M., DeFlorio, M. J., Gibson, P. B., Delle Monache, L., Kalansky, J. F., Wang, J., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Ralph, F. M., Subramanian, A. C., & Anderson, M. L. (2023). Development of a Statistical Subseasonal Forecast Tool to Predict California Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Based on MJO and QBO Activity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(6), e2022JD037360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037360

Hu, W., Ghazvinian, M., Chapman, W. E., Sengupta, A., Ralph, F. M., & Delle Monache, L. (2023). Deep Learning Forecast Uncertainty for Precipitation over Western US. Monthly Weather Review. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0268.1

Guan, B., Waliser, D. E., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Global Application of the Atmospheric River Scale. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(3), e2022JD037180. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037180

Badrinath, A., Delle Monache, L., Hayatbini, N., Chapman, W., Cannon, F., & Ralph, M. (2023). Improving Precipitation Forecasts with Convolutional Neural Networks. Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0002.1

DeHaan, L. L., Wilson, A. M., Kawzenuk, B., Zheng, M., Monache, L. D., Wu, X., Lavers, D. A., Ingleby, B., Tallapragada, V., Pappenberger, F., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Impacts of Dropsonde Observations on Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation in the NCEP GFS and ECMWF IFS Models. Weather and Forecasting, 38(12), 2397–2413. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0025.1

Cobb, A., Steinhoff, D., Weihs, R., Delle Monache, L., DeHaan, L., Reynolds, D., Cannon, F., Kawzenuk, B., Papadopolous, C., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). West-WRF 34-Year Reforecast: Description and Validation. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(11), 2125–2140. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0235.1

Lord, S. J., Wu, X., Tallapragada, V., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). The Impact of Dropsonde Data on the Performance of the NCEP Global Forecast System during the 2020 Atmospheric Rivers Observing Campaign. Part II: Dynamic Variables and Humidity. Weather and Forecasting, 38(5), 721–752. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0072.1

Howard, I. M., Stahle, D. W., Dettinger, M. D., Poulsen, C., Ralph, F. M., Torbenson, M. C. A., & Gershunov, A. (2023). A 440-Year Reconstruction of Heavy Precipitation in California from Blue Oak Tree Rings. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(3), 463–477. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0062.1

Lord, S. J., Wu, X., Tallapragada, V., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). The Impact of Dropsonde Data on the Performance of the NCEP Global Forecast System during the 2020 Atmospheric Rivers Observing Campaign. Part I: Precipitation. Weather and Forecasting, 38(1), 17–45. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0036.1

Reynolds, C. A., Stone, R. E., Doyle, J. D., Baker, N. L., Wilson, A. M., Ralph, F. M., Lavers, D. A., Subramanian, A. C., & Centurioni, L. (2023). Impacts of Northeastern Pacific Buoy Surface Pressure Observations. Monthly Weather Review, 151(1), 211–226. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0124.1

Corringham, T. W., McCarthy, J., Shulgina, T., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 13747. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15474-2

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B., Shulgina, T., DeFlorio, M. J., Subramanian, A. C., Guzman-Morales, J., Aguilera, R., Clemesha, R., Corringham, T. W., Delle Monache, L., Reynolds, D., Tardy, A., Small, I., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Winter wet-dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California. Climate Dynamics, 21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7

Collow, A. B. M., Shields, C. A., Guan, B., Kim, S., Lora, J. M., McClenny, E. E., Nardi, K., Payne, A., Reid, K., Shearer, E. J., Tome, R., Wille, J. D., Ramos, A. M., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Leung, L. R., O’Brien, T. A., Ralph, F. M., Rutz, J., Ullrich, P. A., & Wehner, M. (2022). An overview of ARTMIP’s Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison: Uncertainty in the detection of atmospheric rivers and their associated precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 127(8), 20. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036155

Michaelis, A. C., Gershunov, A., Weyant, A., Fish, M. A., Shulgina, T., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Atmospheric river precipitation enhanced by climate change: A case study of the storm that contributed to California’s Oroville Dam crisis. Earths Future, 10(3), 12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002537

Fish, M. A., Done, J. M., Swain, D. L., Wilson, A. M., Michaelis, A. C., Gibson, P. B., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Large-Scale Environments of Successive Atmospheric River Events Leading to Compound Precipitation Extremes in California. Journal of Climate, 35(5), 1515–1536. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0168.1

O’Brien, T. A., Wehner, M. F., Payne, A. E., Shields, C. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L. R., Ralph, F. M., Collow, A., Gorodetskaya, I., Guan, B., Lora, J. M., McClenny, E., Nardi, K. M., Ramos, A. M., Tome, R., Sarangi, C., Shearer, E. J., Ullrich, P. A., Zarzycki, C., … Zhou, Y. (2022). Increases in future AR count and size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 127(6), 15. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036013

de Orla-Barile, M., Cannon, F., Oakley, N. S., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). A climatology of narrow cold-frontal rainbands in Southern California. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(2), 10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl095362

Chapman, W. E., Delle Monache, L., Alessandrini, S., Subramanian, A. C., Ralph, F. M., Xie, S. P., Lerch, S., & Hayatbini, N. (2022). Probabilistic Predictions from Deterministic Atmospheric River Forecasts with Deep Learning. Monthly Weather Review, 150(1), 215–234. https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-21-0106.1

Afzali Gorooh, V., Shearer, E. J., Nguyen, P., Hsu, K., Sorooshian, S., Cannon, F., & Ralph, M. (2022). Performance of New Near-Real-Time PERSIANN Product (PDIR-Now) for Atmospheric River Events over the Russian River Basin, California. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23(12), 1899–1911. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0066.1

Stewart, B. E., Cordeira, J. M., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Evaluating GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Integrated Water Vapor Transport along the U.S. West Coast. Weather and Forecasting, 37(11), 1985–2004. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0114.1

Sun, W., Liu, Z., Davis, C. A., Ralph, F. M., Monache, L. D., & Zheng, M. (2022). Impacts of dropsonde and satellite observations on the forecasts of two atmospheric-river-related heavy rainfall events. Atmospheric Research, 278, 106327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106327